US diesel forecasts set to fall due to Volkswagen scandal say just-auto’s QUBE analysts

Expected penetration of diesel in the light vehicle market in the US has been significantly downgraded due to the Volkswagen (VW) diesel emission fixing story, according to the automotive analysts at just-auto’s QUBE.

In previous just-auto QUBE US diesel forecasts it had been considered there was reasonable upside to the diesel market in the US, due in part to Volkswagen’s efforts to develop the diesel market in the country. As a result, more automotive manufacturers (OEMs) - including Europeans - were advanced in planning to add diesel light vehicles to their offerings in the US

Now, however, QUBE’s analytical team consider that the US market’s diesel upside has largely diminished due to the mistrust for diesel that will have spread after the revelation that US government regulators found software in Volkswagen vehicles that produced false emissions data, resulting in the resignation of VW CEO Martin Winterkorn.

QUBE’s research team now see diesel penetration in the US reverting to 3-4% in the long-term against the previous forecast of over 7.5% penetration in the future.  It is considered that diesel, as a light vehicle fuel, will revert to mainly seeing use among medium-and heavy-duty pickup trucks.

As Calum MacRae, QUBE’s head of development, explained, “The Euro VI regulations closely align with current US NOx requirements, to the extent that offering a diesel on the US market brings little incremental cost for OEMs.

“Diesel as a light vehicle fuel in the US has a bit of a trust deficit in any case. For one, many consumers associate it with heavy commercial vehicles; second, many consumers will still recall GM’s failed Oldsmobile diesel engine of the early 1980s,” added MacRae.

QUBE’s analysts have also announced that they anticipate a steepening in the decline of diesel-fueled vehicles in the European car market.

About just-auto and QUBE

just-auto.com exists to provide news, analysis and market intelligence to support the automotive industry. We are driven by a passion for an industry with a global turnover of €3 trillion that directly and indirectly supports 60 million jobs. We offer an independent voice with a global remit, championing automotive best practice wherever we find it.

In 2011 just-auto launched QUBE, the automotive database for the auto industry. Supported by a team of experienced automotive analysts, QUBE serves the automotive supply chain, providing them with OEM and supplier automotive competitive analysis, component sector forecasts, and automotive technology intelligence.

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